{2.4, 2.5}, Consequences for the climate system of land-based adaptation and mitigation options, including carbon dioxide removal (negative emissions), About one-quarter of the 2030 mitigation pledged by countries in their initial nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement is expected to come from land- based mitigation options (medium confidence). The extent of degraded and marginal lands suitable for dedicated biomass production is highly uncertain and cannot be established without due consideration of current land use and land tenure. Reliable and timely climate services, relevant to desertification, can aid the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation options reducing, the impact of desertification on human and natural systems (high confidence), with quantitative estimates showing that every USD invested in strengthening hydro-meteorological and early warning services in developing countries can yield between 4 and 35 USD (low confidence). Carbon storage in long-lived wood products and reductions of emissions from use of wood products to substitute for emissions-intensive materials also contribute to mitigation objectives. Additional pressures from socio- economic development could further exacerbate these challenges; however, the effects are scenario dependent. NatureServe and its member programs and collaborators use a rigorous, consistent, and transparent methodology to assess the conservation status (extinction or extirpation risk) of species of plants, animals, and fungi, as well as the conservation status (elimination or extirpation risk) of ecosystems (ecological communities and systems). However, the land and food sectors face particular challenges of institutional fragmentation, and often suffer from a lack of engagement between stakeholders at different scales (medium confidence). The major human drivers of desertification interacting with climate change are expansion of croplands, unsustainable land management practices and increased pressure on land from population and income growth. 10th floor Biogeochemical warming results from increased emissions of GHGs by land, with model-based estimates of +0.20 ± 0.05°C (global climate models) and +0.24 ± 0.12°C – dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) as well as an observation-based estimate of +0.25 ± 0.10°C. This chapter assesses climate impacts on land and land impacts on climate, the human contributions to these changes, as well as land-based adaptation and mitigation response options to combat projected climate changes. Supply-side options include increased soil organic matter and erosion control, improved cropland, livestock, grazing land management, and genetic improvements for tolerance to heat and drought. Livelihoods deteriorate as a result of these impacts, livelihood migration is accelerated, and strife and conflict is worsened (medium confidence). The recent depletion trend of the 13C isotope in the atmosphere indicates that higher biogenic sources explain part of the current CH4 increase and that biogenic sources make up a larger proportion of the source mix than they did before 2000 (high confidence). On the global scale, this is driven by changes in emissions or removals of CO2, CH4 and N2O by land (biogeochemical effects) and by changes in the surface albedo (very high confidence). In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. There is a lack of coordination across governance levels, for example, local, national, transboundary and international, in addressing climate change and sustainable land management challenges. Droughts can be intensified by poor land management. Sustainable forest management can prevent deforestation, maintain and enhance carbon sinks and can contribute towards GHG emissions-reduction goals. Given the interlinkages among response options and that mitigation potentials for individual options assume that they are applied to all suitable land, the total mitigation potential is much lower than the sum of the mitigation potential of the individual response options (high confidence). Lower carbon density in re-growing forests, compared to carbon stocks before deforestation, results in net emissions from land-use change (very high confidence). The pause in the rise of atmospheric CH4 concentrations between 2000 and 2006 and the subsequent renewed increase appear to be partially associated with land use and land use change. During the growing season, afforestation generally brings cooler days from increased evapotranspiration, and warmer nights (high confidence). Increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, have contributed to observed increases in plant growth as well as to increases in woody plant cover in grasslands and savannahs (medium confidence). Scenarios with increases in income and reduced pressures on land can lead to reductions in food insecurity; however, all assessed scenarios result in increases in water demand and water scarcity (medium confidence). Risk is all around us. Dry soil conditions favour or strengthen summer heatwave conditions through reduced evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat. Acting immediately and simultaneously on these multiple drivers would enhance food, fibre and water security, alleviate desertification, and reverse land degradation, without compromising the non-material or regulating benefits from land (high confidence). Increasing the extent and intensity of biomass production, for example, through fertiliser additions, irrigation or monoculture energy plantations, can result in local land degradation. Conversion of primary to managed forests, illegal logging and unsustainable forest management result in GHG emissions (very high confidence) and can have additional physical effects on the regional climate including those arising from albedo shifts (medium confidence). The climate change mitigation potential for bioenergy and BECCS is large (up to 11 GtCO2 yr–1); however, the effects of bioenergy production on land degradation, food insecurity, water scarcity, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and other environmental goals are scale- and context-specific (high confidence). Opportunities exist for integration of ILK with scientific knowledge. Deforestation is the conversion of forest to non-forest land and can result in land degradation. {4.1.6, 4.2.1, 4.7}, Land degradation is a driver of climate change through emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and reduced rates of carbon uptake (very high confidence). {3.4.2, 3.6.2}, Desertification exacerbates climate change through several mechanisms such as changes in vegetation cover, sand and dust aerosols and greenhouse gas fluxes (high confidence). Humans appropriate one-quarter to one-third of global terrestrial potential net primary production (high confidence). A net biophysical cooling of –0.10 ± 0.14°C has been derived from global climate models in response to the increased surface albedo and decreased turbulent heat fluxes, but it is smaller than the warming effect from land-based emissions. Meaningful participation overcomes barriers by opening up policy and science surrounding climate and land decisions to inclusive discussion that promotes alternatives. Global warming beyond present day will further exacerbate ongoing land degradation processes through increasing floods (medium confidence), drought frequency and severity (medium confidence), intensified cyclones (medium confidence), and sea level rise (very high confidence), with outcomes being modulated by land management (very high confidence). While sustainable forest management sustains high carbon sinks, the conversion from primary forests to sustainably managed forests can result in carbon emission during the transition and loss of biodiversity (high confidence). Some processes may experience irreversible impacts at lower levels of warming than others. Research of long term trends in the fossil record suggests that natural speed limits constrain how quickly biodiversity can rebound after waves of extinction. {1.3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1}, Nonetheless, there are many land-related climate change mitigation options that do not increase the competition for land (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 11 in Chapter 7}, The significant social and political changes required for sustainable land use, reductions in demand and land-based mitigation efforts associated with climate stabilisation require a wide range of governance mechanisms. Policy portfolios that make ecological restoration more attractive, people more resilient – expanding financial inclusion, flexible carbon credits, disaster risk and health insurance, social protection and adaptive safety nets, contingent finance and reserve funds, and universal access to early warning systems – could save 100 billion USD a year, if implemented globally. Advances in scenario analysis and modelling are needed to better account for full environmental costs and non-monetary values as part of human decision-making processes. In addition, changes in consumer behaviour, such as reducing the over-consumption of food and energy would benefit the reduction of GHG emissions from land (high confidence). {5.2.3, 5.2.4}, Vulnerability of pastoral systems to climate change is very high (high confidence). Climate change is expected to increase variability in food production and prices globally (high confidence), but the trade in food commodities can buffer these effects. {1.1.1}, The current geographic spread of the use of land, the large appropriation of multiple ecosystem services and the loss of biodiversity are unprecedented in human history (high confidence). Using land resources sustainably is fundamental for human well-being (high confidence). {1.2.1, 1.3.2, 1.3.3, 1.3.4, 1.3.5, 1.3.6}, Sustainable food supply and food consumption, based on nutritionally balanced and diverse diets, would enhance food security under climate and socio-economic changes (high confidence). Heatwaves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity and duration in most parts of the world (high confidence) and drought frequency and intensity is projected to increase in some regions that are already drought prone, predominantly in the Mediterranean, central Europe, the southern Amazon and southern Africa (medium confidence). This net removal is comprised of two major components: (i) modelled net anthropogenic emissions from AFOLU are 5.2 ± 2.6 GtCO2 yr–1 (likely range) driven by land cover change, including deforestation and afforestation/reforestation, and wood harvesting (accounting for about 13% of total net anthropogenic emissions of CO2) (medium confidence), and (ii) modelled net removals due to non-anthropogenic processes are 11.2 ± 2.6 GtCO2 yr–1 (likely range) on managed and unmanaged lands, driven by environmental changes such as increasing CO2, nitrogen deposition and changes in climate (accounting for a removal of 29% of the CO2 emitted from all anthropogenic activities (fossil fuel, industry and AFOLU) (medium confidence). Fire weather seasons have lengthened globally between 1979 and 2013 (low confidence). {6.3.6, 6.4}, Some options, such as bioenergy and BECCS, are scale dependent. {6.4}, Many response options have been practised in many regions for many years; however, there is limited knowledge of the efficacy and broader implications of other response options (high confidence). The annual value of the world’s total terrestrial ecosystem services has been estimated at 75 trillion USD in 2011, approximately equivalent to the annual global Gross Domestic Product (based on USD2007 values) (medium confidence). In addition, trees locally dampen the amplitude of heat extremes (medium confidence). Despite their benefits in addressing desertification, mitigating and adapting to climate change, and increasing food and economic security, many SLM practices are not widely adopted due to insecure land tenure, lack of access to credit and agricultural advisory services, and insufficient incentives for private land-users (robust evidence, high agreement). A portfolio of policy instruments that are inclusive of the diversity of governance actors would enable responses to complex land and climate challenges (high confidence). Global (Paul van Dyk album), 2003; Global (Bunji Garlin album), 2007; Global (Humanoid album), 1989; Global (Todd Rundgren album), 2015; Bruno J. Pastoralism is practiced in more than 75% of countries by between 200 and 500 million people, including nomadic communities, transhumant herders, and agropastoralists. Impacts in pastoral systems in Africa include lower pasture and animal productivity, damaged reproductive function, and biodiversity loss. Response options may also increase risks. IPBES is to perform regular and timely assessments of knowledge on biodiversity and ecosystem services and their interlinkages at the global level. Land and climate interact in complex ways through changes in forcing and multiple biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks across different spatial and temporal scales. Cropland soils have lost 20–60% of their organic carbon content prior to cultivation, and soils under conventional agriculture continue to be a source of GHGs (medium confidence). The land challenges faced today vary across regions; climate change will increase challenges in the future, while socio- economic development could either increase or decrease challenges (high confidence). Trade can provide embodied flows of water, land and nutrients (medium confidence). {6.4}, The feasibility of response options, including those with multiple co-benefits, is limited due to economic, technological, institutional, socio-cultural, environmental and geophysical barriers (high confidence). {2.5.1, 2.5.2, 2.5.3}, Historical changes in anthropogenic land cover have resulted in a mean annual global warming of surface air from biogeochemical effects (very high confidence), dampened by a cooling from biophysical effects (medium confidence). Warming of soils and increased litter inputs will accelerate carbon losses through microbial respiration (high confidence). Current scenario approaches are limited in quantifying time-dependent policy and management decisions that can lead from today to desirable futures or visions. .section-menu li:nth-child(3n) { display: none; } {4.2.1, 4.2.2, 4.2.3, 4.4.1, 4.4.2, 4.9.6, Table 4.1}, Land degradation and climate change, both individually and in combination, have profound implications for natural resource-based livelihood systems and societal groups (high confidence), The number of people whose livelihood depends on degraded lands has been estimated to be about 1.5 billion worldwide (very low confidence). {5.1.1, 5.1.2}, Observed climate change is already affecting food security through increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and greater frequency of some extreme events (high confidence). It is the first intergovernmental Report … Nutrient (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus) availability can limit future plant growth and carbon storage under rising CO2 (high confidence). Terrestrial CDR has the technical potential to balance emissions that are difficult to eliminate with current technologies (including food production). Hence, climate change will affect regions and communities differently (high confidence). {4.1.6, 4.2.1, 4.2.3, 4.3, 4.6.1, 4.7, Table 4.1}, Climate change exacerbates the rate and magnitude of several ongoing land degradation processes and introduces new degradation patterns (high confidence). {7.2.2.1, 7.2.2.2, 7.2.2.3; 7.2.2.4; 7.2.2.5; 7.2.2.6; 7.2.2.7; Figure 7.1}, These changes result in compound risks to food systems, human and ecosystem health, livelihoods, the viability of infrastructure, and the value of land (high confidence). {3.7.5, Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 3, 7.4.3, 7.4.6, 7.5.6, 7.4.8, , 7.5.6, 7.6.3}, Technology transfer in land-use sectors offers new opportunities for adaptation, mitigation, international cooperation, R&D collaboration, and local engagement (medium confidence). Interlinkages and response options in future scenarios, Resolving challenges in response option implementation, Introduction and relation to other chapters, Findings of previous IPCC assessments and reports, Climate-related risks for land-based human systems and ecosystems, Risks to land systems arising from climate change, Risks of desertification, land degradation and food insecurity under different Future Development Pathways, Risks arising from responses to climate change, Risk associated with land-based adaptation, Risk associated with land-based mitigation, Risks arising from hazard, exposure and vulnerability, Consequences of climate – land change for human well-being and sustainable development, Risks to where and how people live: Livelihood systems and migration, Risks to humans from disrupted ecosystems and species, Policies for food security and social protection, Policies to ensure availability, access, utilisation and stability of food, Policies responding to climate-related extremes, Drought-related risk minimising instruments, Flood-related risk minimising instruments, Policies responding to greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, International cooperation under the Paris Agreement, Policies responding to desertification and degradation – Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN), Conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES), Standards and certification for sustainability of biomass and land-use sectors, Economic and financial instruments for adaptation, mitigation, and land, Financing mechanisms for land mitigation and adaptation, Instruments to manage the financial impacts of climate and land change disruption, Innovative financing approaches for transition to low-carbon economies, Enabling effective policy instruments – policy portfolio coherence, Barriers to implementing policy responses, Barriers to land-based climate mitigation, Decision-making for climate change and land, Decision-making, timing, risk, and uncertainty, Best practices of decision-making toward sustainable land management (SLM), Maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs, Trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services (ES), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Synergies and trade-offs, Water, food and aquatic ecosystem services (ES), Considering synergies and trade-offs to avoid maladaptation, Governance: Governing the land–climate interface, Institutions building adaptive and mitigative capacity, Integration – Levels, modes and scale of governance for sustainable development, Adaptive climate governance responding to uncertainty, Institutional dimensions of adaptive governance, Inclusive governance for sustainable development. 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