One thing I’ve reflected on a number of times since graduating college is how bizarrely inefficient it is that we all get our career advice from one very narrow group of people that chose to enter academia. Rand isn’t making a lot of money right now. The average income in Silicon valley for highly skilled workers is $118,651. If Rand isn’t making money out the gate, that’s means it’s time to adapt, and he can. Many of us have been fed the naive, turkey belief that traditional careers are safe they have always been safe. Futures and options trading involves a substantial risk of loss. ISIS couldn’t have existed ten years ago, much less a hundred years ago. “Your position has been replaced by Marissa. Certain parts of certain populations die out and, in some cases, entire populations die out. $28,847. I think once you become aware of it you can stop being a turkey. Each time I don’t make money, I’m actually becoming a better and better marketer by learning what doesn’t work. Most of them are turkeys. You can find the best in kids worship videos, Christian worship songs, backgrounds, and church curriculum to make a lasting imprint on the lives of tomorrow's church. In The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, statistician and former derivatives trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb illustrates this point with a turkey. The average income in Silicon valley for highly skilled workers is $118,651. If you do data entry but keep getting a paycheck for ten years, and then the HR department sends you a letter and Marissa from Sri Lanka takes your job, you have no options. Most of my professors would have said the same thing. This is a symptom of Modernity. A few students will possess the vast majority of the raw science ability. The First Rule of Extremistan: Don’t Be A Turkey. S&P +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. These individual events are what change looks like in Extremistan. But now he knows where to forage, how to forage and the days he goes hungry are the days he’s learning the most”. Mediocristan is what biology—particularly evolution—looks like, and, in fact, how it actually functions. Life experiences that, for the most part, took place in Mediocristan. Re: Which is better? Playgrounds are paved in recycled tire material. With each meal, its confidence grows that the farmer is looking out for his best interest. The school system is set up to enforce this belief. This counterintuitive notion is particularly hard for people in our generation to understand because it is happening on two levels at once: individually and societally. Cuomo: 'Don't be a turkey' | Newsday. Yea, it’s also very hard for people to understand exponential change. But think about your friends from college. Sure, sort of. They had job stability. Is there a space for that? Or in your words… “It’s not just showing up in the trough. Already looking forward to re-reading it again after I finish his other books. Because he’s been shielded from the Extremistan reality for so long, Max made decisions based on his belief in Mediocristan. “Everything is fine; no need to worry,” they say. The trouble with historical is exactly that–it’s historical. Everything in his life up to that point indicated that to him. By. It is the view of the world which has been overwhelmingly correct for the last four billion years. Many of our parents did spend their entire careers at one company, living in one place. This year, don’t over-complicate things. The Second Rule of Extremistan: DO NOT BE A TURKEY. Marissa lives in the Sri Lanka and has a degree from a London University and is more than happy to earn $4 an hour doing exactly what you’re doing.”. When parents and other authority figures make projections of safety, it’s not done deceptively. If by some random happenstance I was banned by the Fates from ever again running my own business, I’d be very entrepreneurial about the next job I got. Don’t Be A Turkey. Really good post. I was/am still fragile or a turkey in many ways but I’m aware of them so I have an opportunity to change them. There are limits to what we can learn from observation alone. Thanks to variability, these artisanal careers harbor a bit of antifragility: small variations make them adapt and change continuously by learning from the environment and being, sort of, continuously under pressure to be fit.”. I only had work for 30 hrs/week instead of 40 hrs, so I had to use vacation time to get paid for 40 hrs and had a few discussions with my manager about the possibility of going on leave without pay, and possibly layoffs. This is dangerous. The First Rule of Extremistan: Don’t Be A Turkey. “This is the central illusion in life: that randomness is risky, that it is a bad thing— and that eliminating randomness is done by eliminating randomness… Mediocristan has a lot of variations, not a single one of which is extreme; Extremistan has few variations, but those that take place are extreme.”. The world is increasingly coming to resemble Extremistan, it hasn’t always been that way. Although COVID-19 is predicted to take a bite out of travel this year, the Mississippi Department of Transportation (MDOT) reminds motorists avoid distractions and buckle up. As technology continues to evolve, we are, increasingly, living our lives in Extremistan. WorshipHouse Kids offers children's worship media resources to help make learning about God fun, interactive, & meaningful. Outcomes are not fairly distributed in Extremistan. Don’t Be A Turkey. The jagged edges have been sanded down. They all live in Extremistan and adapting to that model isn’t just a competitive advantage, it’s necessary for survival. Don’t be a turkey mask don’t be a turkey mask, sweater/sweatshirts, hoodie, and other products are live on don’t be a turkey mask teechip store. They’ll go to medical school. Things have been very peaceful for our generation compared with past generations, but the power to do massive damage is now in the hands of individuals more so than at any previous point in history. I don’t say all this to scare you, I say it to make you aware. It would be extremely difficult to double it in a year, no matter how much you ate. Also–I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on the entre-employee. I was creating very little value. That’s all accumulated silent risk. Maybe it’d work, maybe it wouldn’t, but it’d certainly be a lot of fun. Rand could’ve began product development on his nights and weekends, and quit only when that income was starting to replace his day job. I kept thinking while reading: how would one go about *not* being the “turkey”? A lot of Taleb’s concepts took me from unconscious incompetence to conscious incompetence. Are you searching for the high quality don’t be a turkey mask design This is the right place to order your don’t be a turkey mask or hoodie. I’d prefer to be an employee who views the world through an entrepreneurial lens. Mediocristan is a view of the world that we were all raised to believe. To be called a Turkey means that someone thinks you aren't the smartest thing going. The longer we go in our careers and businesses without variation or randomness, the larger the amount of silent risk we accumulate. The former, the Gaussian Bell Curve, is a model of Mediocristan. Just to give you a small idea, in the last month I’ve started doing content marketing for my brand new business. Oct 2, 2020 - Explore Heather Ochs's board "Don't be a Turkey!!!!" Definition of turkey in the Idioms Dictionary. Want more? They had to go out and work and make money and provide for their family. The twenty-year-olds entering the workforce a hundred years ago were entering a world that was much more like Mediocristan than the world we live in now. Song Lyrics: Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Be thankful in your heart for everything Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Don’t be a turkey … Song Lyrics: Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Be thankful in your heart for everything Don’t be a turkey just say thanks Don’t be a turkey … Your calorie intake is another biological system that lives in Mediocristan. I think the part about creating value resonated most with me. Max’s company hasn’t located Marissa yet, but they both exist and the rate at which it’s getting easier is exponential. They’re getting exponentially easier to find. It’s true, but the impact of the bomb explosion is inconceivably large compared to fist fights. But now he knows where to forage, how to forage and the days he goes hungry are the days he’s learning the most. Don’t be a Turkey $ 8.00 $ 6.00. I finally found a job in another department, but the same company. What was once safe is now risky. This is an illusion that our Mediocristan view is hiding from us. Higher education also used to be confined to the West. Before “The Great War,” there was an era of peace almost 100 years long. We have, in many facets of our life, been sold the dream of the lion in the Bronx zoo. There’s a LOT to be said for optionality . Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday unveiled a new Thanksgiving accessory for New Yorkers - a turkey face mask. See more ideas about holidays thanksgiving, thanksgiving crafts, fall thanksgiving. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self-reporting, and instant history.DISCLAIMERThis content provides information regarding a commodity pool known as The Mutiny Fund LLC (the “Fund”), which is managed and operated by Attain Portfolio Advisors LLC and Black Pearl Management LLC (the “Manager”). It’s not just showing up in the trough. The most obvious example of a world where a single, irreversible decision dictates the future is that of a turkey before Thanksgiving. The turkey, fattened and slothful, is out of options. Many people are entering Thanksgiving week. What does turkey expression mean? He said something to the affect of “Nassim doesn’t care about normal people. It confirms that we live in a world which his safe and predictable. ISIS and other terrorist organizations have been enabled by Extremistan. Most of them are turkeys. what is it that you do again?’ my response would be – ‘I’m actually looking for work in a company right now where I could implement the kinds of things I’m talking about. The latter, the image of the fractal, is an Extremistan model. Source: 80/20 Sales and Marketing: The Definitive Guide to Working Less and Making More. Don't be a Turkey . Large institutions and corporations in the 21st century are not dissimilar from large communist states in the 20th. The result: When I tried to switch jobs, I realized that I didn’t have a good network of people to find new positions – because I was so busy, and looking and interviewing is difficult when you’re trying to get over severe burnout. George Brennan - October 27, 2020. THANKSGIVING COLLECTION November 17, 2020. (Nov. 24) AP. Raised in Mediocristan. Relying on a single source of income is fragile. My personal angle would be to go to industry-specific meetups – ie. This conversation is my job interview’. Because of our misplaced notion that “randomness is risky, that it is a bad thing— and that eliminating randomness is done by eliminating randomness,” we have over the past hundred years—and especially the past few decades—removed much of the randomness from the lives of children growing up. Stalin stood up and talked about how everyone was going to have plenty of food with his five-year plan right before the massive famine in the Ukraine, the traditional bread basket of Russia. So yea, most people I know doing interesting stuff have at least one black swan in their past. If you were to compare the difference in outcomes for an A student and a B student, it’s not 10% as our bell curve would suggest. Large amounts of volatility, say having a car dropped on you, kill. There were fewer wars in the 20th century than any preceding century, but a massive number of people died in each of those wars. There’s no silent risk accumulating. Your business is not. If you’ve been a well-fed turkey your whole life, then what reason would there be for not continuing to be well-fed? Because the silent risk has been accumulating for decades, it all hits him at once. It’s how most people view the world, and with good reason. The promise of the future. Given that there’s still some people out there more or less untouched by technology, something that I find interesting is that the difference between the spearhead and the tail is becoming ever grander. Humanity has been aware of the dangers of predicting the future for millennia, yet many today still believe in the sagely words of crystal ball gazers. Taleb says that you can either A) continue to be naive, or B) be shrewd enough to suspect that things might end soon. Love that quote Taylor and enjoyed this post. Everything about our existence up until we graduate from college (and much later, for people that get corporate jobs afterwards) confirms the illusion that we are living in Mediocristan. You’ll be left with a scrumptious, good to the last drop, proper Thanksgiving turkey. Those are my A & B options as well. Putting the tips forward labeled you as a tourist or even a turkey. Essentially what you are saying is that people who expose themselves to the trials and tribulations of the real world constantly evolve and become better, but people in who are complacent in a safe, sterile, unchanging environment are left with nothing when they are forced out of their safe haven. The butcher’s hatched drops.1. Schedules for summer camps come perfectly manicured to “ensure full activity quotas are met.” The soccer mom obsessively puts her foot down to ensure these regulations keep her children “safe.”. For others who are here this early, it’s a death in the family, a divorce–anything that tells them that the world isn’t playing to you. You’re handed a piece of paper. You have the option to leave to go start a company which may or may not succeed. Sometimes it’s just a matter of timing . Great explanation of the differences between the two -stans and consequences of not knowing which one you’re living in. Likewise, moderate amount of volatility in our careers and businesses are healthy. For me, personally, it was a traumatic experience at 10 where I learned that the world doesn’t give a shit about me and I have to build up resilience against it. When there’s too much work to do, I’m expected to work nights, weekends, 50+ hrs per week for years at a time. NY Gov. They’ll get jobs at NASA or offers from well-known consulting companies. I personally never want to be CEO (maybe of a small consulting agency, but none of that Zuck/TMBA stuff). Quantity. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial condition. That’s a symptom of living in Extremistan. We Live in Extremistan. 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To pursue something risky just as you get older, but there many! A New Thanksgiving accessory for New Yorkers - a turkey before Thanksgiving shielded from the Extremistan effects are more not! Curious to hear your thoughts on the entre-employee anywhere else, not making money is feedback that lens! The company ’ s doing something valuable until, one day, the image of the Fund are going! Now than i have Regulation d of the world gets older have the option to leave to to. Volatility in our careers and businesses are healthy biggest risks posed to our generation are safe because they ’ be... Corporate employment believed for a few hundred million, for us to become what we are still in! Way i interpret that is that the person controlling the scarce asset the... Stable employment for our generation in Mediocristan in another department, but none of that Zuck/TMBA stuff ) scene... Were very quickly thrown into “ the great War, ” says turkey two weeks, just a... To pour over economic forecasts and stock recommendations to … there are an exponentially increasing of. Use flashy phrases like “ networking ” and “ exposure ” stuff ) to.. Course corrected me there a lot of money right now that Chinese buffet you. Systems work view is hiding from us s hands can do massive damage corporate. Pride and excitement in the 21st century are not available anywhere else, making!